QB Carousal continues in Philly, Colts vs. Eagles Betting Preview
2010-11-05
Sportsbook.com Colts vs. Eagles Betting Odds: Philadelphia -3, Total: 46.5
Injuries abound as the Colts travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis will be without TE Dallas Clark (wrist) and most likely RB Joseph Addai who is doubtful because of a shoulder injury. Indianapolis could also be missing WR Austin Collie (thumb surgery) and RB Mike Hart (ankle) who are both questionable. Collie has a better chance to play than Hart does.
The NFL betting public doesn’t seem too concerned about Indy’s injury woes as 80 percent of the Colts vs. Eagles point spread bettors are backing the visitors.
The news for Philadelphia is much brighter as QB Michael Vick will return after missing five games due to a rib injury, meaning Kevin Kolb is back to the bench. WR De’Sean Jackson has been upgraded to probable despite missing last game with a concussion. The one negative is starting CB Ellis Hobbs is unlikely to play because of a strained hip flexor, which is not good news when you face Peyton Manning.
With injuries to Addai and Hart, Donald Brown will get the full workload of carries despite his lingering hamstring problems. Brown has just 97 yards on 32 carries (3.0 YPC) with one touchdown this season.
Luckily for Indianapolis, Manning is fully healthy. He is averaging 306 passing YPG with 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Collie leads the team with six TD catches and has 44 receptions on just 54 targets. WR Reggie Wayne continues to be Manning’s favorite target, and is tied for fourth in the NFL with 641 receiving yards.
On the defensive side of the ball, Indianapolis ranks 28th in the league in rushing defense, allowing 133 YPG.
The poor Colts rush defense plays right into the strength of Vick who is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. LeSean McCoy has also run the ball effectively with 477 rushing yards and a 4.5 YPC to go along with five touchdowns. He also has 38 catches (27 in the past four weeks) out of the backfield for another 293 yards. Jackson helps stretch the field with a 20.8 yards-per-reception average this year, but hasn’t done much in his past three games (6 rec., 77 yds, 1 TD).
The Eagles have taken care of the football, leading the NFC with fewest giveaways (nine) and sporting a plus-7 turnover margin this season.
The Eagles have lost five of seven ATS at home, while the Colts are only 1-3 ATS on the road this year. Although they have only played four times since 1996, Indy has won each of the four meetings by 22 points or more.
This NFL betting trend found at Sportsbook.com indicates that the Colts will win again this Sunday.
Play On - Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. (39-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +21.4 units. Rating = 2*).
To check out all of the Colts vs. Eagles betting odds or to scan all of the NFL Week 9 betting lines, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
Get a Jump on NFL Betting in 20102010-08-23It is time to make some hard cash as the NFL season is approaching near everyday. This is the time when you can flame up your accounts book, only if you know how to bet and who to bet on. If you really are eager to win and make some extra cash, you really need to know the right things to keep in your mind as you impair the games. There are diverse numbers of alternatives proposed by sportbooks that fascinate and develops curiosity in the wagerer. Risk runs in life, it’s a part of life so why not risk some money on NFL; you can either win a lot or go home empty handed, so it is necessary for you to learn how the betting system works and then gamble your money wisely. Betting on NFL and football is also known as the Cadillac of sports betting just like Texas Hold Em is the Cadillac for poker games. There are many early bets to take advantage of this season. At www.sportsbook.com the over under on wins for the Raiders is 6.5. Now that number will surely go lower as the Raider get into what is very likely to be another miserable season. Betting on that line now is getting ahead of the action.
Football stake winnings from one bet on a subsequent wager are just like lotto tickets. And who doesn’t enjoy the parlay tickets? That’s the reason of their being. But you need to be careful and bet parlay tickets in not excess. But they shouldn’t become your primary source of betting. It’s simply fine if you throw down a parlay ticket once or twice a week during the NFL season. But you should do it in moderation and not risk a lot.
It is important that you watch NFL lines, the lines are usually out on Monday and for the games to take place during the Monday night, and their lines will be out on Tuesday. Every week the lines will be out, but they might not make any sense to you at all, and you see the public turning all over to one side then you need to have a deeper look. What you need to keep in your mind is that these lines are not any kind of anticipations. These lines are there to divide up the bets.
One also needs to confide and commit oneself to bet the same amount on every game, and you need to know and learn that no game is more deserving than the other. A pattern of conserved betting will help you earn the most profit. And betting is all about money, isn’t it? One also needs to keep in mind the weather conditions. It can have consequences on the final outcome of the game.
NFL: NY JETS at MIAMI (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)2009-10-09After losing three straight, Miami came up with a huge effort vs. Buffalo to notch its first win in Week 4. The Dolphins will look to make it two in a row on Monday night at home vs. the Jets before heading into their bye week. So far, this game has seen plenty of attention from bettors at Sportsbook.com, and almost all of it has gone to either visiting New York or the OVER. Is this the second straight Monday night game where bettors win big?
HC Tony Sparano’s club has won five of its L6 divisional games, both SU & ATS, but have not beat New York at home since 2005. They are on a 0-6 ATS slide when hosting the Jets since ’03. New York is in the opposite scenario of the ‘Fins, having started 3-0 before losing last week for the first time, in New Orleans. HC Rex Ryan’s team, a 1-1/2 point road favorite, is allowing just 277 YPG thus far, 2nd best in the AFC, and important since Miami is 4-13 ATS at home vs. teams yielding <=285 YPG. Dogs are 8-1 ATS in MIAMI's L9 pre-bye week games.
Do you think Mark Sanchez and the Jets are ready for prime time? They sure are, despite a 24-10 loss at New Orleans in a battle of undefeated teams. Sanchez, the first rookie quarterback since the 1970 merger to win his first three pro starts, makes his Monday Night Football debut when the Jets visit the Dolphins.
A quarter of the way through his rookie campaign, Sanchez appears to be following in the footsteps of Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, last year’s rookie quarterbacks who led their teams to wild-card berths under first-year head coaches. Head coach Rex Ryan completes the formula for the Jets, who started 8-3 in 2008 but dropped four of their last five including the finale at home against Miami.
Chad Pennington led the Dolphins into the Meadowlands last Dec. 28 with the AFC title up for grabs and threw for two touchdowns in a 24-17 victory that completed the greatest one-year turnaround in league history. Cut by the Jets to make room for Brett Favre, he went on to capture the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award for the second time in his career. Unfortunately, Pennington could have a shot at a third in 2010 after suffering a season-ending dislocated shoulder in a Week 3 loss in San Diego.
A second-round pick in 2008, Chad Henne got his first pro start last Sunday at home against Buffalo and threw his first NFL touchdown in a 38-10 blowout win. Given Henne’s inexperience, the ground attack/Wildcat led by Ronnie Brown (419 total yards, four touchdowns) and Ricky Williams (300, 3) must show the way like last week when they combined for 200 yards rushing and three scores.
Henne was 15 years old and Sanchez 14 when the Jets and Dolphins played one of the most memorable games in the history of MNF. On Oct. 23, 2000, New York rallied from 23 points down in the final 15 minutes to force overtime and stunned Miami, 40-37, on John Hall’s 40-yard field goal at 1:08 a.m. Tuesday morning. It was the largest comeback from a fourth-quarter deficit in NFL history and was dubbed the Monday Night Miracle.
The Jets have swept the Dolphins seven times in the past 11 years and hold a 46-39-1 all-time lead in the regular-season series.
PREDICTION
Henne will get the ball downfield more than Pennington but he can’t replace the veteran’s leadership qualities and won’t protect the ball as well. Add in the MNF spotlight and a confident Jets defense and you’ve got the recipe for some shaky moments.
N.Y. JETS 16, MIAMI 13
NFL: Super Bowl XLIII: Looking back to look ahead2009-02-01Tampa Bay will host this year’s Super Bowl festivities on Sunday, as the NFL prepares to crown another champion. In no other sports game, or should I say event, are the stakes higher than they are in each winter’s Super Bowl. Of course, “stakes” is a good word to use in describing the big game, as the words gambling and Super Bowl are practically synonymous. Whether its office square pools, pull tickets, or any one of a number of various side, total, or prop possibilities, if you don’t have action on the game, you are part of a sparse minority. You can of course, get all the action you thirst for, by visiting the LIVE ODDS page from now until kickoff.
One of the big problems that presents itself each year for the Super Bowl game is the fact that the vast number of amateurs partaking in the festivities causes oddsmakers to adjust their line-setting policies accordingly. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. For example, by all set of figures that StatFox had a year ago, it was estimated that New England should have been favored by somewhere in the range of 9-10.5 points last year over the Giants. Instead, if you wanted to back the first team ever to go 16-0 in the regular season, you were forced to lay 12.5 points. Obviously this margin didn’t make a difference as New York won, but it just goes to show how things can change for this biggest of all football contests. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side.
The other challenge that faces bettors for the big game is that the means for successfully handicapping it change significantly from anything seen in the regular season or the playoffs up till this point. In addition to all of the normal factors that a bettor has to consider on a weekly basis, the Super Bowl offers some variation. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. With that said, it does pay off to do your homework. Nobody likes watching the game on the big screen with a know-it-all friend or family member who really didn’t prepare and is now irritable because the game isn’t unfolding as planned.
Hopefully, with all of the coverage we’re offering for Sunday’s Pittsburgh-Arizona showdown, you will at least go into the betting process a prepared and educated fan. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 42 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to get a better feel for what this year’s contest might offer. I call it “Looking back to look ahead.”
I’ve divided the analysis into a few different sections. The first one is looking at the stats generated in past Super Bowl games and how they have reflected the outcome. If you see any not-so-obvious matchup differences that might be exploited on Sunday by the Steelers or Cardinals, perhaps the angles offered there could be the golden nuggets. The second portion is past trends and systems. How do favorites or underdogs do? Does either conference have an edge as how it relates to this year’s game? Do the team records make a difference? These are just a few of the ideas I explore. Finally, the third part recaps some of the successful overall playoff handicapping angles that will be in place for Sunday. If you need even more, there’s a handy chart of past Super Bowl games with pointspreads and stats that you can take advantage of. Enjoy the information everyone, and be sure to take in all that StatFox, the Platinum Sheet, Sportsform & CPFN have to offer this week so that you’re fully prepared to come up big on February 1st!
Super Bowl Stat Angles
The teams have studies each other for two weeks, so they know nearly everything there is to know about their opponent. The players are all professionals that have reached the sport’s pinnacle. There doesn’t figure to be any overwhelming physical mismatches. Therefore, execution proves to be the most pivotal factor in the Super Bowl, more so than any other game simply because of what is at stake. Dictionary.com defines the word “execute” as to carry out; accomplish. In football lingo, this means controlling the line of scrimmage, passing the ball efficiently, and limiting mistakes. In the Super Bowl, the team that accomplishes these goals nearly always comes out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-7 SU & 31-8-3 ATS (78.9%).
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 37-5 SU & 32-7-3 ATS (81.6%).
* In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just three times SU and six times ATS (84.2%). Coincidentally, the last two times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last two world championships.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-11 SU & 29-10-3 ATS.
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-1 SU & 31-5-1 ATS. In ’08, New York ran for more yards, passed for more yards per attempt, and possessed the ball longer than New England.
* Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. For those of you intrigued, the only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots, further indicating that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.
Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Like most of the other major sports, the route to become a champion in the NFL has changed dramatically in recent years. I cite the turning point as Pittsburgh’s 2006 Super Bowl run in which it won four road games as the AFC’s #6 seed to emerge as champion. Since then, we’ve seen improbable sports world titles from the Miami Heat, the Colts & Giants, the Cardinals & Phillies in baseball, and Carolina in the NHL. It has seemed in recent years that the regular season has come to mean very little. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs.
With that caveat in place, I present the following historical Super Bowl records for various pointspread, total, and scoring scenarios.
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-18-3 (53.8%). However, over the past seven years, the underdog owns a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) edge.
* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium.
* The straight up winner is 34-5-3 ATS (87.2%) in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-2 ATS the past five years.
* The NFC holds a 22-20 SU and 21-18-3 (53.8%) ATS edge all time, but is just 4-7-2 ATS dating back to San Francisco’s rout win over San Diego in the ’95 game.
* The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget…Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year’s game.
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.0 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
* There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).
* Passing for 8.0 or more yards per attempt gives teams an excellent chance in the Super Bowl. Teams that accomplish this are 22-2 SU & 17-7 ATS (70.8%).
Over/Under Trends
* There have been 45.3 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl, however, over the last four years, ALL UNDER plays, that figure has dipped to 38.3.
* Prior to Super Bowl XXXIX, OVER the total had been on a run of 14-5-1.
* The last six Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 45 or higher have gone UNDER.
* The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 14 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 22.7 PPG. In essence, if you expect a rout this season, take the OVER, if not, go UNDER.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles that have fared well in past playoff games and have continued to hold their ground in ’09, here are three different systems that will be in play on Sunday. If you’re wondering why the list shortened so dramatically, recall that many of the angles revealed in the wildcard, divisional, and championship rounds hinged on home/road dichotomy, and with the Super Bowl played on a neutral field, those trends don’t apply. In any case, Pittsburgh will try to capitalize on its run stuffing advantage, while Arizona will look to neutralize that edge with its prolific passing game.
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 53-39 ATS (57.6%).
Record in ’09: 8-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Pittsburgh
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 21-15 ATS (58.3%)
Record in ’09: 3-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 23-16 ATS (59.0%)
Record in ’09: 4-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona
Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!
NFL Preseason Flip-Flop2008-08-22Often in the NFL preseason, a number of spreads end up far different from the original number. For example, a home team starts out as a three-point favorite and gets flipped over to the role of underdog by two points. Why would there be such a huge turnaround of money moving lines for a meaningless exhibition contest? Read on and we’ll explain.
The most obvious reason is the amount of money being wagered on one side. More of your hardcore bettors take part in preseason action, since they want to start making wagers and test the waters. Generally speaking, these bettors tend to be somewhat more astute and are less inclined to bet just favorites. At the same time, sharps come fully prepared with information, using the internet to follow the daily progress of training camps. Coaches are much more open during this time and useful, true insights are just a few mouse clicks away.
Another factor is figuring determination. As opposed to the regular season, where confusing signals and patterns arise, August football can be pretty cut and dry. If a team is off a dreadful performance, the coaching staff will undoubtedly be unmerciful in riding a team hard in practice. By this time of training camp, the players are tired of the long and often physical workouts, beating their heads against the same players day after day. A bad loss is magnified right now, because with no real games up next, the coaches can micro-manage the smallest details. At this point, the players can sense what the coaches want and will bring full-focused effort into next game, beating opponent and covering the spread. This type of information is easy to read between the lines when a coach will talk about “a good week of practice” after losing the week prior.
It will also go the other way for teams. Take a team that has had a very good camp, the coaches have generally been pleased with effort and progress and have intentionally rode squad hard during the hot summer period. As a quiet reward, the head coach backs of the pedal a touch, going 80 percent instead of full throttle. Possibly the coach wants to use this time to determine final roster cuts and have the club refocus for the start of the regular season. In this scenario, word has leaked out about softer practices and this team might be ripe for the taking after satisfying win, especially if opponent is off a loss.
Injuries of course play a role, as coaches don’t want to risk a dinged up player in a meaningless affair. This is often an area of overreaction, as regulars see little playing time until this week anyway. What can be exposed is lack of depth as various positions, with deeper squads mounting fourth quarter comebacks to amazingly cover spreads of seemingly lost contests.
An old school method that still holds value among bettors is teams off a win by 10 or more points or a loss by double digits. This plays into the motivational aspect of teams, desiring to play better immediately or satisfied with previous effort. Since this way of thinking has been around for years, the results have been steady and bettors will often hone in on these types of contests.
On Saturday, four games fit the criteria of football games that flipped.
The New York Giants went from -1 to +3 at Sportsbook.com, as they prepare to face cross-locker room rival the Jets. Cincinnati with their wide receiver injuries opened at -2.5 and has been switched to +3. In yet another battle in the Sunshine State, those betting football have taken a shine to Jacksonville on the road, moving them from one-point underdogs to three-point favorites. Finally, in a CBS televised contest, Minnesota started at -1.5 and fell to +3 against Pittsburgh with uncertain status of Tarvais Jackson, who suffered a sprained right MCL in last week's 23-15 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
These flip-flops have meant little to bettors overall. Since the beginning of the decade, home favorites turned around to underdogs are 16-15-2 ATS and home dogs spun around to favorites are 11-9-1 ATS. Nothing of consequence shows up this week to play, however keep next week in mind, as home teams flipped from either the favorite or underdog roles are 8-3 ATS the last week of the preseason the last eight years
NFL - New York Giants at Philadelphia2007-12-07The Giants pulled out a huge playoff implicating win on Sunday in Chicago and have all but locked up the top wildcard spot in the NFC. Of course, the same was thought last year before New York endured a second half swoon. The final quarter of the ’07 campaign starts in Philadelphia, where they’ve enjoyed some recent success. The Eagles are a field goal favorite.
Including wins in the last two regular season meetings, the G-Men own a 6-5 SU & 7-4 ATS edge in the L11 games visiting the Eagles. They are also on a 10-2 ATS run on the road vs. NFC foes. For Philly, postseason hope rests on winning all four remaining games, a longshot indeed. At 5-7 overall, the Eagles have won just two of six games at home, both SU & ATS. In fact, in their last 13 games as hosts, HC Andy Reid’s team is just 4-9 ATS.
In the NFL, quarterback ratings, touchdown pass-to-interception ratio, and team leadership paint a picture; however, a quarterback is ultimately judged on his win-loss record. Eli Manning will travel with his team to the City of Brotherly Love being either two or four games over .500 after 50 starts in the NFL. He is no longer a young quarterback learning and should be on the way to continuing progress. It has to be asked why Kevin Gilbride is calling the plays for the G-Men as his star as offensive guru has long since passed.
Even if QB Donovan McNabb starts this game, his days as the future starting QB are numbered. The injuries he has suffered the last couple of seasons have taken the spark out of his game and during his career he has never been in the Tom Brady class for on-target deliveries. Philadelphia is still in playoff contention and might have to win out to earn a berth. However, if Andy Reid can create game plans like he did against New England, and the Eagles have the same focus they had at the end of last season, they could duplicate a quality run.
Keys to the Game
The Giants will come in with 9-2 ATS record against NFC opponents and could take control of top wild card position with a win. Brian Westbrook becomes the focal point of offense and could open things up for WR Kevin Curtis deep. Tom Coughlin’s crew needs the road graders to play up to the level they have most of the season. This NFC matchup is usually a slugfest with the average total score being a hair over 37 points the last 14 seasons in Philly.
Trends
~ The Giants are 1-8 ATS before playing Washington.
~ Philadelphia is 11-4-1 ATS in the first of multiple division contests.
StatFox Edge – Eagles cover